UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Lightweight
VS
50%
Miller
50%
Guida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:58
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
5'8"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 50% vs Guida at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Miller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
44.2
51.5
Performance Avg
40.7
45
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
78
Miller
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Miller
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Miller
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
14
Submission Wins
5
8
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Guida
Striking3.4 / 2.1Volume3.5 / 5.9Grappling4.7 / 3.7Wrestling3.3 / 2.6Submission5.0 / 2.8Pressure6.8 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Miller
Strike Zones
Guida
Miller
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (50% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
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News & Media

Jim Miller · Clay Guida
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