UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Bantamweight
VS
51%
Katona
49%
Gibson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Katona
This is a genuine toss-up — Katona at 51% vs Gibson at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Katona has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gibson has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Katona
Gibson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
64"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Katona
Gibson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.2
39.9
44.0
Performance Avg
39.8
44
Quality of Victory
46
40
Momentum Score
25
Katona
Gibson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
49
Head
44
14
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
51Distance40
15Clinch11
0Ground0
Katona
Gibson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Katona
Gibson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Katona
Gibson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Katona
Gibson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Katona
Gibson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
KatonaGibson
Strike Zones
Katona
Attacking
66 landedAbsorbing
51 absorbedGibson
Attacking
51 landedAbsorbing
66 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Katona targets the head (74% of attacks) — Gibson absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Gibson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Katona absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Katona
RND
Gibson
0/0R00/0
Katona · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gibson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Katona · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 2.6KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
AoriqilengRating 2.3KO/TKO
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