UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Middleweight
VS
66%
Santos
34%
Marquardt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
Santos holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Marquardt has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
16.8
54.0
Performance Avg
48.6
51
Quality of Victory
46
91
Momentum Score
59
Santos
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
11 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
6
Body
0
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
12Distance6
1Clinch1
3Ground0
Santos
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/33 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Santos
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Santos
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
79%
69%
11
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Marquardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
SantosMarquardt
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMarquardt
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (38% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the legs (86% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Marquardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
Marquardt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05