UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Las Vegas, USA
11 Mar 2023
Heavyweight
VS
68%
Williams
32%
Brzeski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karl
Karl Williams
10 – 2
6'3"79" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Lukasz
Lukasz Brzeski
"The Bull"
9 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Williams

Williams holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Brzeski has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Brzeski throws more volume but Williams connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brzeski has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Williams
Brzeski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Williams
Brzeski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.6
21.3
45.0
Performance Avg
20.7
25
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
30
Williams
Brzeski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch2
9Ground0
Williams
Brzeski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Williams
Brzeski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
18
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Williams
Brzeski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
30
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Williams
Brzeski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Williams
Brzeski
Striking1.5 / 0.3Volume9.5 / 8.3Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.3 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
9.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Williams
Strike Zones
Brzeski
Williams
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Brzeski
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Williams targets the head (90% of attacks) — Brzeski absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Brzeski targets the head (50% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Williams
RND
Brzeski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Williams · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W4.5W6.1W6.3L2023-032023-052024-032024-08
WinLossTrend

Brzeski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0106.5L6.0L3.0L6.4W2.6L2.8L1.9L2022-082023-082024-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Williams · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Jhonata DinizRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Justin TafaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

Brzeski · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Mick ParkinRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Valter WalkerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08

News & Media

Karl Williams · Lukasz Brzeski
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