The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2013
Featherweight
VS
81%
Yahya
19%
Niinimaki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Yahya
Yahya is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Yahya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Niinimaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Yahya's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Niinimaki has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Yahya
Niinimaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+69"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Yahya
Niinimaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.3
9.8
50.5
Performance Avg
25.0
39
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
33
Yahya
Niinimaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
53%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
6Ground3
Yahya
Niinimaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Yahya
Niinimaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/40 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Yahya
Niinimaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Yahya
Niinimaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yahya
Niinimaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
YahyaNiinimaki
Strike Zones
Yahya
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedNiinimaki
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yahya targets the head (88% of attacks) — Niinimaki absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Niinimaki targets the body (40% of attacks) — Yahya absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yahya
RND
Niinimaki
0/0R00/0
Yahya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Niinimaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Yahya · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Victor HenryRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Ray RodriguezRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
Upcoming
Enrique BarzolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
Niinimaki · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Chas SkellyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Sub · R1
Niklas BackstromRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11