UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2019
Middleweight
VS
82%
Shahbazyan
18%
Marshman
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:12
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Shahbazyan
Shahbazyan is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Shahbazyan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Shahbazyan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Shahbazyan's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marshman has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
28+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.1
14.2
56.3
Performance Avg
36.0
51
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
54
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
25%
8.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
54
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Shahbazyan
Marshman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
ShahbazyanMarshman
Strike Zones
Shahbazyan
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMarshman
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Shahbazyan targets the head (85% of attacks) — Marshman absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Shahbazyan
RND
Marshman
0/0R00/0
Shahbazyan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Marshman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Shahbazyan · Last 5
Upcoming
Brendan AllenUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Dylan BudkaRating 5KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
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UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Marshman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · Sub · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9Submission
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
John PhillipsRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Karl RobersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10