The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Las Vegas, USA
4 Jun 2011
Lightweight
VS
70%
Guida
30%
Pettis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
AP
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pettis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Pettis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
18.8
40.7
Performance Avg
52.6
35
Quality of Victory
51
78
Momentum Score
72
Guida
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
1Clinch0
4Ground2
Guida
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Guida
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
72
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Guida
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Pettis
Striking2.1 / 3.8Volume5.9 / 4.0Grappling3.7 / 3.8Wrestling2.6 / 2.6Submission2.8 / 3.6Pressure4.2 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Guida
Strike Zones
Pettis
Guida
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (43% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.1W5.7L5.5L6.0L6.9W3.8L4.9W4.1L6.0W3.3L5.7W5.5L3.8L4.5W4.5W2011-062014-122016-122019-032020-12
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

News & Media

Clay Guida · Anthony Pettis
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