UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
15 Feb 2014
Lightweight
VS
92%
Trinaldo
8%
Ronson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Trinaldo
Trinaldo is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Trinaldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Ronson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Trinaldo's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ronson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Trinaldo
Ronson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
47
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Trinaldo
Ronson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
2.6
48.6
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Trinaldo
Ronson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
5
Body
3
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance10
1Clinch2
9Ground0
Trinaldo
Ronson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Trinaldo
Ronson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/37 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Trinaldo
Ronson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Trinaldo
Ronson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Trinaldo
Ronson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
TrinaldoRonson
Strike Zones
Trinaldo
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedRonson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Trinaldo targets the head (40% of attacks) — Ronson absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Ronson targets the head (58% of attacks) — Trinaldo absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Trinaldo
RND
Ronson
0/0R00/0
Trinaldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ronson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Trinaldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny RobertsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · KO · R3
Jai HerbertRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Ronson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joaquim SilvaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
Upcoming
Nicolas DalbyUFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Kevin LeeRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02