UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Las Vegas, USA
18 Dec 2021
Lightweight
VS
74%
Leavitt
26%
Sayles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:05
Jordan
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
13 – 3
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
MS
Matt Sayles
8 – 4
Submission Hunter2-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Leavitt

Leavitt is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sayles throws more volume but Leavitt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Leavitt
Sayles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
68"
30+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Leavitt
Sayles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.8
23.2
54.0
Performance Avg
37.0
46
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
22
Leavitt
Sayles
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
6
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Leavitt
Sayles
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Leavitt
Sayles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Leavitt
Sayles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Leavitt
Sayles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Leavitt
Sayles
Striking4.7 / 0.5Volume4.0 / 0.5Grappling3.5 / 8.0Wrestling2.4 / 5.6Submission3.3 / 10.0Pressure6.7 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Leavitt
Strike Zones
Sayles
Leavitt
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Sayles
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Leavitt targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Sayles targets the body (67% of attacks) — Leavitt absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Leavitt
RND
Sayles
0/0R00/0

Leavitt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W6.4L5.2W4.6W4.5L5.0W2.3L5.0W6.3W2020-122022-042023-112026-02
WinLossTrend

Sayles · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.6W2.5L4.2L2018-082019-052019-122021-12
WinLossTrend

Leavitt · Last 5

Upcoming
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Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Kurt HolobaughRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02

Sayles · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08

News & Media

Jordan Leavitt · Matt Sayles
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