★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
Brooklyn, USA
7 Apr 2018
Lightweight
VS
50%
Nurmagomedov
50%
Iaquinta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
KN
CFR 26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nurmagomedov
This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 50% vs Iaquinta at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Iaquinta throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Iaquinta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
25.8
68.2
Performance Avg
47.0
47
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
51
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
11
0
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance16
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
Iaquinta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
NurmagomedovIaquinta
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedIaquinta
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Iaquinta absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Iaquinta targets the head (69% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
Iaquinta
0/0R00/0
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Iaquinta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12
Iaquinta · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R5
Kevin LeeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R5
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04