UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Las Vegas, USA
3 Mar 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
26%
Yoder
74%
Dern
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AY
Ashley Yoder
"SpiderMonkey"
8 – 9
5'7"69" reachSouthpaw38 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

Dern is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Dern has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Yoder
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
69"+
Reach
63"
38
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Yoder
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
59.6
25.9
Performance Avg
51.1
25
Quality of Victory
39
20
Momentum Score
94
Yoder
Dern
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
35%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
15
4
Body
5
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance10
3Clinch6
0Ground8
Yoder
Dern
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Yoder
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Yoder
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
94
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Yoder
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Yoder
Dern
Striking0.6 / 1.4Volume8.6 / 5.7Grappling2.4 / 5.0Wrestling1.7 / 3.5Submission0.0 / 4.5Pressure0.8 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Yoder
Strike Zones
Dern
Yoder
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY4LEGS24 absorbed
Dern
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY4LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Yoder targets the head (60% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (63% of attacks) — Yoder absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Yoder
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Yoder · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.6L6.7L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.6L5.5L5.5L2016-122018-112020-082021-072023-10
WinLossTrend

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Yoder · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Emily DucoteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jinh Yu FreyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Miranda GrangerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Livinha SouzaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Ashley Yoder · Mackenzie Dern
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