UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Middleweight
VS
71%
Brunson
29%
Carneiro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:38
DB
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23 – 9
6'1"77" reachSouthpaw42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
RC
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
21 – 11
Well-Rounded47 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brunson

Brunson is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brunson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brunson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brunson
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
77"+
Reach
76"
42+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Brunson
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.2
16.1
54.7
Performance Avg
41.6
47
Quality of Victory
40
72
Momentum Score
59
Brunson
Carneiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
21Ground0
Brunson
Carneiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brunson
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Brunson
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Brunson
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brunson
Carneiro
Striking6.3 / 3.4Volume4.2 / 4.9Grappling2.0 / 3.2Wrestling1.4 / 2.2Submission1.4 / 2.5Pressure6.5 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Brunson
Strike Zones
Carneiro
Brunson
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Carneiro
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brunson targets the head (96% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brunson
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0

Brunson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.4L5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L2.9L4.5W4.5W6.9W5.1W5.2W3.7L4.7L2012-122016-022018-012021-092023-03
WinLossTrend

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L5.2W2.8L5.5L5.0W1.8L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-062016-022017-02
WinLossTrend

Brunson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

News & Media

Derek Brunson · Roan Carneiro
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