UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Belem, Brazil
3 Feb 2018
Welterweight
VS
34%
Moraes
66%
Means
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SM
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14 – 6
6'0"72" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Means

Means holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Moraes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Means has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moraes's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Moraes
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+75"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
36.5
47.0
Performance Avg
45.2
37
Quality of Victory
41
95
Momentum Score
40
Moraes
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
49
6
Body
7
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
38Distance54
0Clinch1
0Ground3
Moraes
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moraes
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Moraes
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Moraes
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moraes
Means
Striking2.5 / 5.0Volume5.2 / 4.8Grappling4.2 / 2.2Wrestling2.9 / 1.5Submission3.8 / 1.3Pressure5.3 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Moraes
Strike Zones
Means
Moraes
Attacking
31HEAD6BODY1LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
49HEAD7BODY2LEGS58 absorbed
Means
Attacking
49HEAD7BODY2LEGS58 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD6BODY1LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (82% of attacks) — Means absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (84% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moraes
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W2.6L4.6W5.2W5.5L4.2L4.0L2012-062015-122018-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10

News & Media

Sergio Moraes · Tim Means
← Back to fights