UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Las Vegas, USA
6 Feb 2021
Featherweight
VS
94%
Valiev
6%
Day
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Valiev
Valiev is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Valiev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Valiev throws more volume but Day connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Day has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Valiev
Day
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
67"
Reach
+73"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Valiev
Day
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.4
1.7
41.7
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
73
Momentum Score
0
Valiev
Day
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
2Clinch0
15Ground0
Valiev
Day
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Valiev
Day
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Valiev
Day
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Valiev
Day
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Valiev
Day
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ValievDay
Strike Zones
Valiev
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedDay
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Valiev targets the head (73% of attacks) — Day absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Day targets the head (100% of attacks) — Valiev absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Valiev
RND
Day
0/0R00/0
Valiev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Day · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Valiev · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jack ShoreRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Martin DayRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
Upcoming
Trevin JonesUFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
Day · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Timur ValievRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Sub · R1
Anderson Dos SantosRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Pingyuan LiuRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11