UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Flyweight
VS
92%
Maness
8%
Mendonca
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:40
Nate
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
16 – 3
5'10"72" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 59
Mateus
Mateus Mendonca
"Bocao"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide27 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'6"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maness

Maness is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Maness has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.

Maness has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Maness
Mendonca
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
72"+
Reach
71"
34
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Maness
Mendonca
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.7
5.3
54.3
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Maness
Mendonca
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
0
2
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
2Clinch2
26Ground0
Maness
Mendonca
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maness
Mendonca
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Maness
Mendonca
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Maness
Mendonca
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maness
Mendonca
Striking5.4 / 0.0Volume4.6 / 0.0Grappling2.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Maness
Strike Zones
Mendonca
Maness
Attacking
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Mendonca
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maness targets the head (90% of attacks) — Mendonca absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Mendonca targets the body (67% of attacks) — Maness absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maness
RND
Mendonca
0/0R00/0

Maness · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.2W5.2W6.8L2.6L5.0W5.0W2020-082021-092022-112024-06
WinLossTrend

Mendonca · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.9L2.7L6.4L2023-012023-102024-02
WinLossTrend

Maness · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mateus MendoncaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
L · Sub · R1
Tagir UlanbekovRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Tony GravelyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09

Mendonca · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Nate ManessRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Javid BasharatRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

News & Media

Nate Maness · Mateus Mendonca
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