UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Norfolk, USA
29 Feb 2020
Featherweight
VS
74%
Dawson
26%
Minner
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
Dawson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dawson throws more volume but Minner connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Minner has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dawson
Minner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
69"
32+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Minner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
22.0
57.5
Performance Avg
37.0
39
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
45
Dawson
Minner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
77%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Dawson
Minner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Minner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/40 fights
Dawson
Minner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Dawson
Minner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Minner
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
DawsonMinner
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMinner
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Minner absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Minner
0/0R00/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Minner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Minner · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Ryan HallRating 5.5Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Darren ElkinsRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
W · Sub · R1
TJ LaramieRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09