UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Featherweight
VS
48%
Woodson
52%
Padilla
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:58
Sean
Sean Woodson
"The Sniper"
13 – 2
6'2"78" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Fernando
Fernando Padilla
"El Valiente"
16 – 6
Pressure Fighter29 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Padilla

This is a genuine toss-up — Woodson at 48% vs Padilla at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Padilla has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Striking split: Padilla throws more volume but Woodson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Woodson's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Woodson
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
76"
33
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Woodson
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.1
60.1
52.1
Performance Avg
54.2
35
Quality of Victory
57
84
Momentum Score
58
Woodson
Padilla
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
4.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
14
0
Body
4
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
36Distance17
0Clinch5
2Ground0
Woodson
Padilla
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Woodson
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Woodson
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
58
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Woodson
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Woodson
Padilla
Striking4.4 / 6.0Volume7.3 / 1.0Grappling1.7 / 4.0Wrestling1.2 / 2.8Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure4.3 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Woodson
Strike Zones
Padilla
Woodson
Attacking
35HEAD0BODY3LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD4BODY4LEGS22 absorbed
Padilla
Attacking
14HEAD4BODY4LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD0BODY3LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Woodson targets the head (92% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (64% of attacks) — Woodson absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Woodson
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Woodson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W4.2L5.5W5.0W5.0W5.3W4.7W6.3W4.7L2019-102021-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Padilla · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.6L5.0W2.6L2023-042023-092024-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Woodson · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Dan IgeRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Fernando PadillaRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Padilla · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Sean WoodsonRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Luis PajueloRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Sean Woodson · Fernando Padilla
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