★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
59%
Topuria
41%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Topuria
This is a genuine toss-up — Topuria at 59% vs Holloway at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Topuria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Topuria
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
69"
29+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Topuria
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.3
56.2
77.5
Performance Avg
56.8
62
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Topuria
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
52%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
7
3
Body
3
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
17Distance14
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Topuria
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Topuria
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Topuria
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
9-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Topuria
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
52%
6
KO / TKO Wins
10
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Topuria
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
TopuriaHolloway
Strike Zones
Topuria
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Topuria targets the head (76% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (50% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Topuria
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Topuria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Topuria · Last 5
Upcoming
Justin GaethjeUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04