UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
70%
Magny
30%
Larkin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:08
Neil
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31 – 15
6'3"80" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 48
LL
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18 – 6
Striker2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Magny

Magny is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Larkin throws more volume but Magny connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Magny's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Magny
Larkin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
80"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Magny
Larkin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.5
20.5
47.4
Performance Avg
47.0
36
Quality of Victory
45
75
Momentum Score
92
Magny
Larkin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
6
2
Leg
13
RangeRange
6Distance22
2Clinch10
0Ground0
Magny
Larkin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Magny
Larkin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
6
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/46 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Magny
Larkin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
92
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Magny
Larkin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
60%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
14
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Magny
Larkin
Striking4.2 / 7.0Volume6.0 / 4.2Grappling2.4 / 1.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.7Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Magny
Strike Zones
Larkin
Magny
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY13LEGS32 absorbed
Larkin
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY13LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Magny targets the head (63% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Larkin targets the head (41% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 41% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Magny
RND
Larkin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Magny · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.6W5.2W4.5W5.5W5.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W4.8W5.5W1.5L4.5W1.7L4.5W5.0W3.9L5.3W4.5W4.8W6.3L5.5W5.1W4.8L6.4W1.7L5.6W7.0L7.3W3.6L3.7L5.8W6.5W3.7L2013-022015-082020-032023-082025-12
WinLossTrend

Larkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L5.8L5.0W5.8W5.5L4.5W5.6W2013-042014-052015-062016-08
WinLossTrend

Magny · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Yaroslav AmosovRating 3.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

Larkin · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Neil Magny · Lorenz Larkin
← Back to fights