UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Krakow, Poland
11 Apr 2015
Welterweight
VS
20%
Baczynski
80%
Edwards
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:08
SB
CFR 14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Baczynski throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Baczynski's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baczynski
Edwards
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
75"+
Reach
74"
44
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Baczynski
Edwards
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
57.4
43.3
Performance Avg
51.1
42
Quality of Victory
36
33
Momentum Score
95
Baczynski
Edwards
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
31%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Baczynski
Edwards
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Baczynski
Edwards
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/34 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Baczynski
Edwards
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
95
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Baczynski
Edwards
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baczynski
Edwards
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.2
BaczynskiEdwards
Strike Zones
Baczynski
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedEdwards
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (100% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baczynski
RND
Edwards
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Baczynski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Baczynski · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Leon EdwardsRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Brian MelanconRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03