UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Las Vegas, USA
2 Mar 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
41%
Pennington
59%
Weili
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weili
This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 41% vs Weili at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weili has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
Striking split: Pennington throws more volume but Weili connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Pennington
Weili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'4"
60"
Reach
+63"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Pennington
Weili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
71.6
39.8
Performance Avg
66.9
28
Quality of Victory
60
89
Momentum Score
100
Pennington
Weili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
56%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
17
3
Body
3
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance7
0Clinch6
0Ground10
Pennington
Weili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Weili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/30 fights
Pennington
Weili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Pennington
Weili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Weili
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
PenningtonWeili
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedWeili
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Weili absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Weili targets the head (74% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Weili
0/0R00/0
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Weili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
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L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
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