UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
38%
Markos
62%
Casey
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Casey
Casey holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Markos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Markos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Markos's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Markos
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
63"
Reach
+67"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Markos
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.7
27.5
34.0
Performance Avg
40.3
29
Quality of Victory
41
15
Momentum Score
73
Markos
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
16
0
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
3Distance9
1Clinch1
0Ground11
Markos
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Markos
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Markos
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
73
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Markos
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Markos
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MarkosCasey
Strike Zones
Markos
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedCasey
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Markos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (76% of attacks) — Markos absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Markos
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
Markos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Markos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Livinha SouzaRating 4.5Decision
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L · R1
Luana PinheiroRating 4UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Kanako MurataRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.6Decision
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Casey · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5Submission
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