★ Championship Bout · Interim Heavyweight
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Interim Heavyweight
VS
61%
Aspinall
39%
Blaydes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aspinall
Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Blaydes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Blaydes has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aspinall
Blaydes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'4"
78"
Reach
+80"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Blaydes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
53.9
77.7
Performance Avg
53.4
70
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
81
Aspinall
Blaydes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.7
1.6
69%
Strike Accuracy
56%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Aspinall
Blaydes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aspinall
Blaydes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
8
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
21/25 fights
Aspinall
Blaydes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
81
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Aspinall
Blaydes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aspinall
Blaydes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.4
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
AspinallBlaydes
Strike Zones
Aspinall
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBlaydes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Blaydes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aspinall
RND
Blaydes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aspinall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Blaydes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Blaydes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04