Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Interim Heavyweight

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Manchester, United Kingdom

27 Jul 2024

Interim Heavyweight

61%

Aspinall

39%

Blaydes

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 1:00

Tom Aspinall

15 – 3

6'5"78" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 83

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"

19 – 6

Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"

CFR 54

★ Official Result

Tom AspinallwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:00

def. Curtis Blaydes · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Aspinall

→

Actual result

Aspinall wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Blaydes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.

Risk flags

Blaydes has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

AspinallBlaydes

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Aspinall

Blaydes

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'5"+

Height

6'4"

78"

Reach

+80"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Aspinall

Blaydes

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

83.0

53.9

77.7

Performance Avg

53.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Aspinall

Blaydes

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.3

/ 10

6.4

/ 10

9.7

Style: Pressure

5.6

1.8

Style: Volume

4.8

6 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

7 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

4Distance5

0Clinch0

10Ground0

Aspinall

Blaydes

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

1.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.7

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Aspinall

Blaydes

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

10/18 fights

Chin rating based on

22/25 fights

Aspinall

Blaydes

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R2

Aspinall

Blaydes

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aspinall

Blaydes

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.4

2.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.0

1.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.7

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

9.7

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

1.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.8

Aspinall

Strike Zones

Blaydes

Aspinall

Attacking

14 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Blaydes

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

14 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Aspinall targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Blaydes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aspinall

RND

Blaydes

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Aspinall · Last 5

Upcoming

Ciryl Gane

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · KO · R1

Curtis Blaydes

KO/TKO

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · KO · R1

Sergei Pavlovich

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

W · KO · R1

Marcin Tybura

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

L · KO · R1

Curtis Blaydes

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Blaydes · Last 5

Upcoming

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

L · Dec · R3

Josh Hokit

Decision

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Rizvan Kuniev

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06

L · KO · R1

Tom Aspinall

KO/TKO

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · KO · R2

Jailton Almeida

KO/TKO

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

News & Media

Tom Aspinall · Curtis Blaydes

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