★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Welterweight
VS
50%
Edwards
50%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Leon
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22 – 6
6'2"74" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Belal
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Edwards

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 50% vs Muhammad at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Muhammad throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Edwards
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
56.8
51.1
Performance Avg
48.5
36
Quality of Victory
31
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Muhammad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
11
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Edwards
Muhammad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
70
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Edwards
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Edwards
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards
Muhammad
Striking3.6 / 2.8Volume7.2 / 7.9Grappling2.3 / 2.5Wrestling1.6 / 1.7Submission0.7 / 0.7Pressure4.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Edwards
Strike Zones
Muhammad
Edwards
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Muhammad
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (85% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (85% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0

Edwards · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.0W4.5W6.6L4.5W5.5W6.0W4.9W5.5W4.5W5.6W4.7W4.5W6.6W5.6W5.8W6.6L4.5L5.0L2014-112016-102019-032023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Muhammad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5W3.0L5.4W4.5W4.6W4.5W6.5L4.5W5.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.0W6.4W4.7W5.6W7.0L7.0L2016-072017-112020-062022-102025-11
WinLossTrend

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Muhammad · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Belal Muhammad
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