METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Welterweight
VS
52%
Goff
48%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Trey WaterswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Billy Ray Goff · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Goff
→
Actual result
Waters wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Goff at 52% vs Waters at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Goff has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Risk flags
Goff's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GoffWaters
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Goff
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'5"
72"
Reach
+77"
28+
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Goff
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.2
46.3
46.0
Performance Avg
41.7
60
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
73
Goff
Waters
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
2.0
0.5
Style: Volume
9.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
26
3
Body
1
11
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Goff
Waters
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Goff
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/13 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Goff
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
73
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Goff
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Goff
Waters
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
GoffWaters
Strike Zones
Goff
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedWaters
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Goff targets the head (48% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the head (96% of attacks) — Goff absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Goff
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0
Goff · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Ty MillerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · Sub · R1
Ramiz BrahimajSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Trey WatersDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Yusaku KinoshitaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
Waters · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Sam PattersonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Billy Ray GoffDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Josh QuinlanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04