UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Welterweight
VS
55%
Goff
45%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BR
Billy Ray Goff
9 – 4
5'10"72" reachSwitch27 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 56
Trey
Trey Waters
"The Truth"
9 – 2
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'5"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Goff

This is a genuine toss-up — Goff at 55% vs Waters at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Goff has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Striking split: Goff throws more volume but Waters connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Goff
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'5"
72"
Reach
+77"
27+
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Goff
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
46.3
49.3
Performance Avg
41.7
60
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
73
Goff
Waters
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.4
2.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
26
3
Body
1
11
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Goff
Waters
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Goff
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Goff
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Goff
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Goff
Waters
Striking10.0 / 1.3Volume0.7 / 9.3Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 2.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Goff
Strike Zones
Waters
Goff
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY11LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD1BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Waters
Attacking
26HEAD1BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY11LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Goff targets the head (48% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the head (96% of attacks) — Goff absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Goff
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0

Goff · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W6.1L3.0L2023-082024-052025-05
WinLossTrend

Waters · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.9W5.5W3.2L2023-042024-052025-09
WinLossTrend

Goff · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Ramiz BrahimajRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Trey WatersRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Yusaku KinoshitaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08

Waters · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Sam PattersonRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Billy Ray GoffRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Josh QuinlanRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04

News & Media

Billy Ray Goff · Trey Waters
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