UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Anaheim, USA
23 Oct 2010
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Ortiz
48%
Hamill
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TO
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
19 – 12
6'3"74" reachOrthodox51 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
MH
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
12 – 8
Well-Rounded49 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortiz

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortiz at 52% vs Hamill at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ortiz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Hamill throws more volume but Ortiz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ortiz's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hamill has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortiz
Hamill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+76"
51
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ortiz
Hamill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
18.5
57.3
Performance Avg
51.9
57
Quality of Victory
42
85
Momentum Score
63
Ortiz
Hamill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
15
3
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance14
0Clinch0
1Ground3
Ortiz
Hamill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ortiz
Hamill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/31 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Ortiz
Hamill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Ortiz
Hamill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortiz
Hamill
Striking5.8 / 6.3Volume3.8 / 4.5Grappling1.9 / 1.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.7Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Ortiz
Strike Zones
Hamill
Ortiz
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Hamill
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the head (63% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Hamill targets the head (88% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortiz
RND
Hamill
0/0R00/0

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L4.2W5.0W3.4L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L5.5L5.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L1.5L5.5L1997-052001-022005-022010-102012-07
WinLossTrend

Hamill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W5.8W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L2006-062008-042009-122011-082013-10
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Forrest GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Rogerio NogueiraRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · KO · R2
Rashad EvansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
W · Sub · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5
Submission
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

Hamill · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

News & Media

Tito Ortiz · Matt Hamill
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