METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Porto Alegre, Brazil
22 Feb 2015
Welterweight
VS
30%
Macario
70%
Dwyer
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:14
★ Official Result
Matt DwyerwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:14
def. William Macario · UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dwyer
→
Actual result
Dwyer wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Dwyer is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dwyer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Risk flags
Macario's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MacarioDwyer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Macario
Dwyer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Macario
Dwyer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.1
18.5
25.0
Performance Avg
46.0
25
Quality of Victory
60
17
Momentum Score
43
Macario
Dwyer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
7.8
8.5
Style: Volume
0.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
10
0
Body
2
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Macario
Dwyer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Macario
Dwyer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Macario
Dwyer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Macario
Dwyer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Macario
Dwyer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MacarioDwyer
Strike Zones
Macario
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedDwyer
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Macario targets the legs (88% of attacks) — Dwyer absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Dwyer targets the head (77% of attacks) — Macario absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Macario
RND
Dwyer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Macario · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Matt DwyerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R3
Neil MagnyKO/TKO
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Bobby VoelkerDecision
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R2
Leonardo SantosSubmission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Dwyer · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Alan JoubanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
William MacarioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Albert TumenovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10