UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Porto Alegre, Brazil
22 Feb 2015
Welterweight
VS
30%
Macario
70%
Dwyer
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:14
WM
William Macario
"Patolino"
9 – 3
5'11"75" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 8
MD
Matt Dwyer
9 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dwyer

Dwyer is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dwyer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Macario has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Macario's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Macario
Dwyer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Macario
Dwyer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.1
18.5
25.0
Performance Avg
46.0
25
Quality of Victory
60
17
Momentum Score
43
Macario
Dwyer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
28%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
10
0
Body
2
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Macario
Dwyer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Macario
Dwyer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Macario
Dwyer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Macario
Dwyer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Macario
Dwyer
Striking0.5 / 10.0Volume8.5 / 0.5Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Macario
Strike Zones
Dwyer
Macario
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY7LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Dwyer
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY7LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Macario targets the legs (88% of attacks) — Dwyer absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Dwyer targets the head (77% of attacks) — Macario absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Macario
RND
Dwyer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Macario · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0102.8L4.5W4.6L1.5L2013-062013-122014-102015-02
WinLossTrend

Dwyer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L5.0W5.5L6.4L2014-102015-022015-072016-01
WinLossTrend

Macario · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Matt DwyerRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Bobby VoelkerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R2
Leonardo SantosRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

Dwyer · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Alan JoubanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
William MacarioRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Albert TumenovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

William Macario · Matt Dwyer
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