UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Middleweight
VS
29%
Till
71%
Plessis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Plessis
Plessis is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Plessis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Plessis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Till's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Till
Plessis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+76"
33
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Till
Plessis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.5
73.5
44.3
Performance Avg
65.6
38
Quality of Victory
49
35
Momentum Score
100
Till
Plessis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
11
2
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
11Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Till
Plessis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Till
Plessis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
10/26 fights
Till
Plessis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Till
Plessis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Till
Plessis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
TillPlessis
Strike Zones
Till
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedPlessis
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Till targets the head (82% of attacks) — Plessis absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Plessis targets the head (69% of attacks) — Till absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Till
RND
Plessis
0/0R00/0
Till · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Plessis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Till · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.9Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Sub · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
L · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
W · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.8Decision
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Jorge MasvidalRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Plessis · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Sub · R4
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.8Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07