★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
69%
Lawler
31%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 1:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
MacDonald has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
18.1
51.0
Performance Avg
51.3
45
Quality of Victory
39
90
Momentum Score
61
Lawler
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance2
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Lawler
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
13/23 fights
Lawler
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
61
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lawler
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
44%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
LawlerMacDonald
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (100% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02