UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Wellmaker
55%
Diaz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:08
Malcolm
Malcolm Wellmaker
"The Machine"
10 – 2
5'10"71" reachSwitch31 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 64
Juan
Juan Diaz
"Pegajoso"
16 – 1
Submission Hunter27 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 78

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Diaz

This is a genuine toss-up — Wellmaker at 45% vs Diaz at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wellmaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Wellmaker throws more volume but Diaz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Wellmaker
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+27
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Wellmaker
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.7
78.3
56.0
Performance Avg
69.7
60
Quality of Victory
50
65
Momentum Score
100
Wellmaker
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
78%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
2
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Wellmaker
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wellmaker
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/17 fights
Wellmaker
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Wellmaker
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wellmaker
Diaz
Striking10.0 / 2.0Volume1.0 / 2.0Grappling0.0 / 8.0Wrestling0.0 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure8.5 / 10.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
Wellmaker
Strike Zones
Diaz
Wellmaker
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY5LEGS7 absorbed
Diaz
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY5LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wellmaker targets the head (40% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Wellmaker absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wellmaker
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0

Wellmaker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.0W5.0W7.2L4.9L2025-042025-062025-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Wellmaker · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Juan DiazRating 4.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ethyn EwingRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron SaaimanRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04

Diaz · Last 1

W · Sub · R2
Malcolm WellmakerRating 6.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05

News & Media

Malcolm Wellmaker · Juan Diaz
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