UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Lightweight
VS
95%
Silva
5%
Ronson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
Silva is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Ronson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ronson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Ronson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+70"
37+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Silva
Ronson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.9
2.6
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
38
Quality of Victory
0
67
Momentum Score
0
Silva
Ronson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
10
9
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance14
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Silva
Ronson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Ronson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Silva
Ronson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Silva
Ronson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Ronson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SilvaRonson
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedRonson
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (52% of attacks) — Ronson absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Ronson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Ronson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ronson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 5.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · KO · R2
Jesse RonsonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
Ronson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joaquim SilvaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 3.5Submission
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Upcoming
Nicolas DalbyUFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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