The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
97%
Pennington
3%
Magana
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
Pennington is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pennington has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Magana has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pennington
Magana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
5'1"
60"
Reach
+65"
36+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Magana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
1.8
39.8
Performance Avg
0.0
28
Quality of Victory
0
89
Momentum Score
0
Pennington
Magana
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
15%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
2
14
Body
1
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
39Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pennington
Magana
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Magana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Pennington
Magana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pennington
Magana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Magana
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PenningtonMagana
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMagana
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (51% of attacks) — Magana absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Magana targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Magana
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Magana · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
Magana · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Amanda CooperRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
L · Sub · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12