UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
21 Oct 2023
Bantamweight
VS
66%
Nurmagomedov
34%
Gafurov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Gafurov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Gafurov throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
34
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.8
32.5
53.5
Performance Avg
31.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
87
Momentum Score
35
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.1
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
Gafurov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
NurmagomedovGafurov
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedGafurov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (40% of attacks) — Gafurov absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Gafurov targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
Gafurov
0/0R00/0
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Gafurov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Muin GafurovRating 5Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Saidyokub KakhramonovRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Gafurov · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Jakub WiklaczRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rinya NakamuraRating 6.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R1
Said NurmagomedovRating 2.9Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
John CastanedaRating 6.3Decision
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