UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Welterweight
VS
59%
Muhammad
41%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Belal
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Muhammad

This is a genuine toss-up — Muhammad at 59% vs Burns at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Muhammad throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Muhammad
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Muhammad
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
39.8
48.5
Performance Avg
48.1
31
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
28
Muhammad
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
9
8
Body
3
0
Leg
9
RangeRange
42Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Muhammad
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Muhammad
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
19 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/29 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Muhammad
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Muhammad
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
53%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
5
12
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Muhammad
Burns
Striking2.8 / 3.2Volume7.9 / 4.9Grappling2.5 / 3.8Wrestling1.7 / 2.6Submission0.7 / 3.3Pressure3.6 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Muhammad
Strike Zones
Burns
Muhammad
Attacking
34HEAD8BODY0LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY9LEGS21 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY9LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD8BODY0LEGS42 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Muhammad targets the head (81% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (43% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Muhammad
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0

Muhammad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5W3.0L5.4W4.5W4.6W4.5W6.5L4.5W5.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.0W6.4W4.7W5.6W7.0L7.0L2016-072017-112020-062022-102025-11
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Muhammad · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Belal Muhammad · Gilbert Burns
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