UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Raleigh, USA
25 Jan 2020
Featherweight
VS
80%
Allen
20%
Lentz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Arnold
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
21 – 4
5'8"70" reachSouthpaw32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 62
NL
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Allen

Allen is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Lentz throws more volume but Allen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Allen
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Allen
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.3
16.0
52.8
Performance Avg
45.3
35
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
53
Allen
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
2
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Allen
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Allen
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/25 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Allen
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Allen
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
36%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Allen
Lentz
Striking3.3 / 3.4Volume6.9 / 6.4Grappling2.9 / 2.7Wrestling2.0 / 1.9Submission1.7 / 1.4Pressure4.7 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Allen
Strike Zones
Lentz
Allen
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Lentz
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Allen targets the head (86% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (44% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Allen
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0

Allen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5W4.5W4.6W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.3W5.9W5.6W6.6L6.8L5.5W7.1L5.7W2015-062019-032022-032024-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Lentz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.4L4.5W5.2W7.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.2L6.9L6.8L2009-092012-012015-052018-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Allen · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Melquizael CostaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Lentz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Arnold Allen · Nik Lentz
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