★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Bantamweight
VS
30%
Barao
70%
Dillashaw
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 2:26
RB
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34 – 9
5'6"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
TD
TJ Dillashaw
18 – 5
Striker40 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dillashaw

Dillashaw is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dillashaw has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dillashaw has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barao
Dillashaw
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Dillashaw
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
36.6
59.4
Performance Avg
62.3
64
Quality of Victory
56
0
Momentum Score
100
Barao
Dillashaw
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
21
1
Body
2
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Barao
Dillashaw
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
Dillashaw
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
18/23 fights
Barao
Dillashaw
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Barao
Dillashaw
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
62%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barao
Dillashaw
Striking3.3 / 6.8Volume4.6 / 4.5Grappling3.7 / 1.5Wrestling2.6 / 1.1Submission3.3 / 0.8Pressure5.5 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Barao
Strike Zones
Dillashaw
Barao
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD2BODY2LEGS25 absorbed
Dillashaw
Attacking
21HEAD2BODY2LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (60% of attacks) — Dillashaw absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Dillashaw targets the head (84% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barao
RND
Dillashaw
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Barao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.1W5.0W4.1L5.5W3.5L6.0L4.5W6.5L5.8L5.5L2.8L5.7L2011-052013-092016-052019-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Dillashaw · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5W5.4W5.5L4.5W4.5W6.2W6.1W3.0L6.0W3.1L2011-122013-102016-012019-012022-10
WinLossTrend

Barao · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07

Dillashaw · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Aljamain SterlingRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Henry CejudoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
W · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11

News & Media

Renan Barao · TJ Dillashaw
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