METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
57%
Moraes
43%
Ottow
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Sergio MoraeswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Zak Ottow · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moraes
→
Actual result
Moraes wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Moraes at 57% vs Ottow at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Moraes's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ottow has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoraesOttow
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moraes
Ottow
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Ottow
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
14.1
47.0
Performance Avg
40.2
37
Quality of Victory
34
95
Momentum Score
53
Moraes
Ottow
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
3.3
5.2
Style: Volume
7.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
13
0
Body
6
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
18Distance24
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Moraes
Ottow
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraes
Ottow
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
8/24 fights
Moraes
Ottow
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Moraes
Ottow
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraes
Ottow
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
MoraesOttow
Strike Zones
Moraes
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedOttow
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (95% of attacks) — Ottow absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Ottow targets the head (54% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraes
RND
Ottow
0/0R00/0
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R3
James KrauseKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesKO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
Ottow · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Sage NorthcuttKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Mike PyleKO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Li JingliangKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11