UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
57%
Moraes
43%
Ottow
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SM
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14 – 6
6'0"72" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
ZO
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moraes

This is a genuine toss-up — Moraes at 57% vs Ottow at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ottow throws more volume but Moraes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Moraes's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ottow has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Moraes
Ottow
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Ottow
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
14.1
47.0
Performance Avg
40.2
37
Quality of Victory
34
95
Momentum Score
53
Moraes
Ottow
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
13
0
Body
6
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
18Distance24
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Moraes
Ottow
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moraes
Ottow
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
8/24 fights
Moraes
Ottow
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Moraes
Ottow
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moraes
Ottow
Striking2.5 / 3.5Volume5.2 / 7.0Grappling4.2 / 1.8Wrestling2.9 / 1.3Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Moraes
Strike Zones
Ottow
Moraes
Attacking
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY5LEGS24 absorbed
Ottow
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY5LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (95% of attacks) — Ottow absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Ottow targets the head (54% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 54% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moraes
RND
Ottow
0/0R00/0

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W2.6L4.6W5.2W5.5L4.2L4.0L2012-062015-122018-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Ottow · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W2.3L5.0W2.8L4.5W1.5L2016-102017-062018-032018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

Ottow · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Sage NorthcuttRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Li JingliangRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11

News & Media

Sergio Moraes · Zak Ottow
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