UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
51%
Almeida
49%
Kopylov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cesar
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
7 – 2
6'1"74" reachOrthodox38 yrsStriker
CFR 57
Roman
Roman Kopylov
15 – 5
Striker34 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almeida

This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 51% vs Kopylov at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kopylov throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Almeida
Kopylov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Almeida
Kopylov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
54.3
52.0
Performance Avg
50.3
47
Quality of Victory
45
58
Momentum Score
58
Almeida
Kopylov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
6
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance11
2Clinch0
1Ground3
Almeida
Kopylov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Kopylov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/9 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Almeida
Kopylov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
58
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Almeida
Kopylov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Almeida
Kopylov
Striking7.9 / 8.3Volume3.9 / 3.5Grappling0.8 / 0.7Wrestling0.6 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Almeida
Strike Zones
Kopylov
Almeida
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Kopylov
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (47% of attacks) — Kopylov absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Kopylov targets the head (93% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Almeida
RND
Kopylov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Almeida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.2W6.5L4.5W6.5W6.8L2024-042024-062024-102025-012025-12
WinLossTrend

Kopylov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.0L5.5L5.5W6.2W5.6W5.2W4.2L5.6W6.2W6.5L7.1L5.8W2019-112023-012024-022025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Almeida · Last 5

Upcoming
Damian Pinas
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Cezary OleksiejczukRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Ihor PotieriaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Kopylov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Marco TulioRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Cesar AlmeidaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Cesar Almeida · Roman Kopylov
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