UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Brisbane, Australia
19 Mar 2016
Welterweight
VS
34%
O'Reilly
66%
Jouban
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jouban
Jouban holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but O'Reilly has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jouban has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Jouban throws more volume but O'Reilly connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jouban has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
O'Reilly
Jouban
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
69"
Reach
+73"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
O'Reilly
Jouban
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.3
18.1
25.0
Performance Avg
49.7
25
Quality of Victory
42
22
Momentum Score
67
O'Reilly
Jouban
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.8
60%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
22
4
Body
9
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance11
5Clinch16
0Ground5
O'Reilly
Jouban
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
O'Reilly
Jouban
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
13/24 fights
O'Reilly
Jouban
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
67
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
O'Reilly
Jouban
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
O'Reilly
Jouban
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
O'ReillyJouban
Strike Zones
O'Reilly
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedJouban
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯O'Reilly targets the body (50% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Jouban targets the head (69% of attacks) — O'Reilly absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
O'Reilly
RND
Jouban
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
O'Reilly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Jouban · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
O'Reilly · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun MaRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Vik GrujicRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · Dec · R3
Zhang LipengRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · 2014-08
Jouban · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03