UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Anaheim, USA
23 Feb 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Machida
42%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
DH
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32 – 15
Well-Rounded55 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Machida

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 58% vs Henderson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Machida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Henderson has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
47+
Age
55
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
13.8
53.8
Performance Avg
49.5
45
Quality of Victory
49
78
Momentum Score
20
Machida
Henderson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Machida
Henderson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
2
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
18/47 fights
Machida
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Machida
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
44%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Henderson
Striking5.7 / 5.4Volume5.3 / 5.4Grappling1.7 / 1.3Wrestling1.2 / 0.9Submission0.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.4
Machida
Strike Zones
Henderson
Machida
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Henderson
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Henderson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.2W4.2W5.5L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W5.5L1998-052009-012013-112015-112016-10
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Henderson · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Dan Henderson
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