UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
56%
Murphy
44%
Cerminara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Murphy
This is a genuine toss-up — Murphy at 56% vs Cerminara at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerminara throws more volume but Murphy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerminara has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Murphy
Cerminara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+68"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Cerminara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
41.2
41.9
Performance Avg
40.9
34
Quality of Victory
25
87
Momentum Score
85
Murphy
Cerminara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
16
2
Body
4
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance21
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Murphy
Cerminara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Murphy
Cerminara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
17/24 fights
Murphy
Cerminara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Murphy
Cerminara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Cerminara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
MurphyCerminara
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedCerminara
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (63% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Cerminara targets the head (67% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Cerminara
0/0R00/0
Murphy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Cerminara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3Decision
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Cerminara · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
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