UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Las Vegas, USA
7 Sept 2024
Welterweight
VS
41%
Burns
59%
Brady
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brady
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 41% vs Brady at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brady has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brady has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burns
Brady
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
39
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Brady
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
57.4
48.1
Performance Avg
53.7
40
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
84
Burns
Brady
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
23
4
Body
1
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
9Distance30
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Burns
Brady
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
5
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Brady
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/21 fights
Burns
Brady
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
84
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Burns
Brady
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
44%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Brady
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
BurnsBrady
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedBrady
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (44% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Brady targets the head (74% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Brady
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Brady · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Brady · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12