UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Catch Weight
VS
59%
Justino
41%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Justino
This is a genuine toss-up — Justino at 59% vs Smith at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Justino has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Striking split: Smith throws more volume but Justino connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Justino
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
68"+
Reach
66"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Justino
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.9
19.4
75.9
Performance Avg
47.6
69
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
79
Justino
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
3.1
61%
Strike Accuracy
46%
8.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
2
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance2
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Justino
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Justino
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/23 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Justino
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
79
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
Justino
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Justino
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
JustinoSmith
Strike Zones
Justino
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSmith
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Justino targets the head (81% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (100% of attacks) — Justino absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Justino
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Justino · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Justino · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Felicia SpencerRating 4.8Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · KO · R1
Amanda NunesRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Holly HolmRating 4.6Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12
W · KO · R3
Tonya EvingerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Smith · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Amanda LemosRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 5.3Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cristiane JustinoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Rin NakaiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · R2
Jessica EyeRating 4.8UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · 2014-11