UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Las Vegas, USA
18 Jan 2020
Welterweight
VS
73%
McGregor
27%
Cerrone
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:40
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
5'9"74" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 74
DC
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36 – 17
Well-Rounded6-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but McGregor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

McGregor's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McGregor
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
74"+
Reach
73"
37+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McGregor
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.4
28.2
68.9
Performance Avg
53.0
67
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
McGregor
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
49%
9.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
8 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
3Clinch0
13Ground0
McGregor
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGregor
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
McGregor
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
McGregor
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
6
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McGregor
Cerrone
Striking9.4 / 5.6Volume3.0 / 3.7Grappling0.5 / 2.8Wrestling0.3 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 2.6Pressure7.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
McGregor
Strike Zones
Cerrone
McGregor
Attacking
19HEAD0BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Cerrone
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD0BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McGregor
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Cerrone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W6.4W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.7L5.2W5.0W5.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W1.7L5.0W5.5W5.2W5.9W2.8L5.8L1.5L5.0W6.6L5.0W6.1W4.5W5.3L3.1L3.5L5.5L1.5L3.2L2011-022013-112016-062019-052022-07
WinLossTrend

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

News & Media

Conor McGregor · Donald Cerrone
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