UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Paris, France
28 Sept 2024
Lightweight
VS
34%
Oki
66%
Duncan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duncan
Duncan holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Oki has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duncan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Oki throws more volume but Duncan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oki's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oki
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oki
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.1
60.4
31.0
Performance Avg
53.2
25
Quality of Victory
39
40
Momentum Score
89
Oki
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
2.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
7
3
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
21Distance10
6Clinch0
1Ground0
Oki
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oki
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/14 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Oki
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Oki
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oki
Duncan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
OkiDuncan
Strike Zones
Oki
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedDuncan
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oki targets the head (89% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (70% of attacks) — Oki absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oki
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
Oki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Duncan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Oki · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Manoel SousaRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Mason JonesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
Duncan · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09