UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
62%
Ankalaev
38%
Cutelaba
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:19
Magomed
Magomed Ankalaev
21 – 2
6'3"75" reachOrthodox33 yrsStriker
CFR 66
Ion
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
20 – 11
Well-Rounded32 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ankalaev

Ankalaev holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Cutelaba has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Cutelaba throws more volume but Ankalaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ankalaev's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cutelaba has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
75"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
40.5
59.9
Performance Avg
47.1
43
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
26
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
5
2
Body
2
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance11
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
21/31 fights
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ankalaev
Cutelaba
Striking6.7 / 5.4Volume5.7 / 3.6Grappling1.2 / 2.6Wrestling0.8 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure6.1 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Ankalaev
Strike Zones
Cutelaba
Ankalaev
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY2LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY4LEGS11 absorbed
Cutelaba
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY4LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY2LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (81% of attacks) — Cutelaba absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Cutelaba targets the head (45% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ankalaev
RND
Cutelaba
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Ankalaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.7L5.4W4.5W5.5W5.3W5.3W5.7W5.3W4.5W6.4W5.9W4.6W6.6W3.6L2018-032020-022022-032025-032025-10
WinLossTrend

Cutelaba · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.5W6.5L5.0W5.0W3.1L5.9W3.0L3.0L4.5W1.9L2.3L4.0L5.6W6.2L4.5W5.9W6.3L6.0W2016-062019-042022-052024-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Ankalaev · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Johnny Walker
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Cutelaba · Last 5

Upcoming
Navajo Stirling
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ibo AslanRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Magomed Ankalaev · Ion Cutelaba
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