UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Middleweight
VS
66%
McVey
34%
Dumas
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McVey
McVey holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Dumas has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McVey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
McVey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dumas has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McVey
Dumas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
77"
Reach
+79"
27+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McVey
Dumas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.0
27.6
45.7
Performance Avg
30.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
35
McVey
Dumas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
0.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
0
5
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
5Clinch2
14Ground0
McVey
Dumas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McVey
Dumas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/9 fights
Chin rating based on
9/15 fights
McVey
Dumas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
35
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
McVey
Dumas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McVey
Dumas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
McVeyDumas
Strike Zones
McVey
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedDumas
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McVey targets the head (76% of attacks) — Dumas absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Dumas targets the body (67% of attacks) — McVey absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McVey
RND
Dumas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
McVey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Dumas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
McVey · Last 3
W · Sub · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Zach ReeseRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · Sub · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Dumas · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Donte JohnsonRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
Upcoming
Zach ReeseUFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Denis TiuliulinRating 4.6Decision
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