UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
73%
Hernandez
27%
Aubin-Mercier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Alexander
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18 – 9
5'9"72" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 53
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hernandez

Hernandez is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
19.4
47.4
Performance Avg
49.0
42
Quality of Victory
43
90
Momentum Score
61
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
2Clinch0
12Ground1
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
12/16 fights
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
61
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
71%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier
Striking6.1 / 2.6Volume5.1 / 3.5Grappling1.2 / 5.3Wrestling0.8 / 3.7Submission0.0 / 5.7Pressure5.2 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Hernandez
Strike Zones
Aubin-Mercier
Hernandez
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (88% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hernandez
RND
Aubin-Mercier
0/0R00/0

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.0L5.0W5.7L5.0W3.5L3.9L4.9W5.7L5.8L4.5W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.3L2018-032020-102023-022025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

News & Media

Alexander Hernandez · Olivier Aubin-Mercier
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