UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Hunt
47%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:00
MH
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13 – 14
5'10"72" reachOrthodox52 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 21
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist49 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hunt

This is a genuine toss-up — Hunt at 53% vs Nelson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nelson throws more volume but Hunt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hunt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hunt
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
52
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hunt
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
18.5
53.0
Performance Avg
55.6
55
Quality of Victory
61
91
Momentum Score
26
Hunt
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Hunt
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hunt
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Hunt
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
26
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Hunt
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
89%
7
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hunt
Nelson
Striking9.8 / 9.8Volume2.0 / 1.8Grappling0.3 / 0.3Wrestling0.2 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Hunt
Strike Zones
Nelson
Hunt
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hunt targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (78% of attacks) — Hunt absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hunt
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hunt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0101.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5W4.0L5.1W2.1L5.1L5.0W5.0W4.0L6.6W6.4L1.5L5.5L2010-092013-032015-052017-062018-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Hunt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin WillisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R4
Derrick LewisRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · KO · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Mark Hunt · Roy Nelson
← Back to fights