UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Catch Weight
VS
73%
Miller
27%
Alves
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
5'8"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 44
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

Miller is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
16.5
51.5
Performance Avg
47.3
45
Quality of Victory
42
28
Momentum Score
63
Miller
Alves
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
3
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Miller
Alves
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
27/38 fights
Miller
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Miller
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
53%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
14
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Alves
Striking3.4 / 5.8Volume3.5 / 4.3Grappling4.7 / 1.5Wrestling3.3 / 1.0Submission5.0 / 0.7Pressure6.8 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Miller
Strike Zones
Alves
Miller
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Alves
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

News & Media

Jim Miller · Thiago Alves
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