METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Catch Weight
VS
73%
Miller
27%
Alves
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jim MillerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Thiago Alves · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Miller
→
Actual result
Miller wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Miller is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alves has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MillerAlves
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Miller
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
16.5
51.5
Performance Avg
47.3
45
Quality of Victory
42
28
Momentum Score
63
Miller
Alves
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
3
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Miller
Alves
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
27/38 fights
Miller
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Miller
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
53%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
14
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Alves
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
MillerAlves
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedAlves
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (50% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02